Stable job = more kids: Finland's fertility equation
Police Officers (-9%) vs ICT Workers (-41%): How Job Security Shapes Modern Fatherhood
A sharp fertility decline among Finnish men reveals growing economic anxiety is fundamentally reshaping family planning decisions, with educational and career paths creating increasingly stark divides, according to "Economic Uncertainty and Men's Fertility: Analysing the 2010s Fertility Decline in Finland by Field of Education and Employment Characteristics" by researchers Julia Hellstrand, Jessica Nisén, and Mikko Myrskylä of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and Helsinki Institute for Demography and Population Health.
Why it matters
Finland's fertility rate has plummeted to historic lows, with men's total fertility rate dropping from 1.73 to 1.21 between 2010-2019. The decline has been heavily concentrated in first births and may lead to substantial decreases in lifetime fertility for the 1980s cohort.
The big picture
New research using comprehensive Finnish population data shows your field of education increasingly determines if and when you'll become a father, highlighting growing social inequalities in the Nordic welfare state.
The decline began during the 2008 economic recession but accelerated even as the economy recovered
Fields with initially lower fertility saw stronger declines, widening existing gaps
Fields with higher economic certainty proved more resilient
Diving deeper: Nordic context
Finland operates under a dual earner-dual caregiver model where:
Both parents are encouraged to work and share childcare
Affordable childcare and parental leave systems support families
Higher earnings promote parenthood for both genders
Despite gender equality efforts:
Men still earn higher salaries on average
The gender pay gap persists, especially among parents
Finnish fathers take less parental leave than in other Nordic countries
By the numbers: Field differences
Fertility levels at the secondary education level:
🔬 Natural sciences: 1.30 children
📚 Education fields: 2.11 children
At higher tertiary level:
🎨 Arts and humanities: 1.64 children
🏥 Health fields: 2.23 children
Childlessness rates:
10% in services sectors
31% in arts and humanities
Over 40% of natural sciences
Detailed field breakdown
Fields with stronger declines (2010-2019):
ICT: -40%
Environmental sciences: -42.5%
Chemical engineering: -40%
Natural sciences fields: -41.6%
Fields with smaller declines:
Agriculture: -20%
Health and welfare: -20%
Police officers: -9%
Teaching fields: -28.9%
Economic factors driving fertility
The research identified key predictors of fertility decline:
Employment security
Higher unemployment = sharper fertility declines
Public sector jobs provide more stability
Secure fields saw smaller declines
Income potential
Early career income strongly predicts fertility
Fields with income growth saw smaller declines
Income requirements for parenthood rising
Career clarity
Fields with clear career paths (e.g., medicine, teaching) = higher fertility
General fields (arts, humanities) = lower fertility
Job-education match matters significantly
Field specificity impact
Highly specific fields (engineering, medicine) = more stable fertility
General fields = larger fertility declines
Clear career trajectories help family planning
What they found
The research shows economic uncertainty explains:
About 50% of the total fertility rate decline
Roughly 66% of first-birth decline
Increasing importance over time
Methodology spotlight
Researchers analyzed:
Full population register data
122 detailed education groups
Men aged 15-49 years (2000-2019)
Multiple economic indicators
Detailed field characteristics
Behind the findings
The research reveals a complex relationship between education, economics, and fertility in modern Finland. Educational fields serve as powerful predictors of economic stability, with this link becoming increasingly crucial for family formation decisions. Despite Finland's progressive gender policies, the traditional male breadwinner role continues to influence fertility patterns — men's ability to provide economic security remains a key factor in family planning. Most concerning: the growing disparities in childbearing patterns suggest that despite Nordic countries' emphasis on social equality, economic uncertainty is creating new forms of reproductive inequality.
The bottom line
Even in Finland's robust welfare state, economic security increasingly determines men's fertility choices. The growing link between economic stability and fertility challenges Nordic equality goals.
What's next: The findings suggest the need for:
Targeted support for economically uncertain fields
Policy focus on young adults' economic security
Attention to growing social inequalities
Better work-family balance support