Since 2021: Vance Rants About Childless Cat Ladies, Walz Implements CTCs and School Lunches
Despite his love of blaming "childless cat ladies" ever since his appreance on Tucker Carlson Show in 2021, JD Vance never endorsed any concrete plan until his recent interview. It was the first time Vance had supported a "universal" Child Tax Credit, as Vance said nothing about Romney's first and second proposals, when Joe Manchin, Krystan Sienema, and the Senate GOP killed off the expanded Child Tax Credit, or as the Senate GOP killed off the Wyden-Smith Tax Bill that would bring a muted form of it.
Then again, it shouldn't surprise anyone. In February, GOP Senator Thom Tills released an oped saying, "The fundamental problem with the bill is that Republicans made a major concession to Democrats—allowing the child tax credit to begin to transition into a de facto welfare program—in return for something Democrats already wanted: research-and-development tax breaks for businesses. President Biden and Democratic lawmakers have been keen to weaken the work requirements of the child tax credit as part of their 'Build Back Better' agenda. They love to use the term 'refundability,' which means ensuring that people get money from the government even if they don't pay taxes."
Because, you know, only progressive countries like Hungary and the Czech Republic would dare give families more money than they pay in taxes. Let alone the fact it seems the Senate GOP, with a few exceptions, is more than okay with letting the research-and-development tax languish as long child poverty keeps skyrocketing after the expiration of the original eCTC.
On the other hand, Harris's vice presidential candidate, Gov. Tim Walz, has taken concrete action by implementing a state-level version of the expanded Child Tax Credit.
Before you accuse me of being unfair to Vance, let's judge his stance on the CTC using a tool from his own world - the tech industry. As a venture capitalist, Vance should appreciate the concept of POSIWID: The Purpose of a System Is What It Does. This principle, coined by management cyberneticist Stafford Beer, asserts that there's "no point in claiming that the purpose of a system is to do what it constantly fails to do." In Vance's case, his system of supposed support for families consistently fails to produce any meaningful action on the CTC. He talks a big game about supporting families, but where was he when Romney's proposals were on the table? Where was his voice when the expanded CTC was on the chopping block? Where was he when Thom Tills and the rest of the Senate GOP cut the throat of the Wyden-Smith Tax Bill, killing a CTC with work requirements and tax breaks for R&D. By the POSIWID standard, the purpose of Vance's "pro-family" stance seems to be nothing more than generating soundbites.
The Expanded Child Tax Credit: Rise and Fall
Overview of Biden and Harris’s Expanded CTC
Biden and Harris implemented an expanded Child Tax Credit as part of its family policy initiatives to substantially support families with children. The expanded CTC significantly impacted childhood poverty reduction and improved family stability during its implementation.
The end of the expanded CTC
Joe Manchin played a crucial role in ending Biden's last chance of renewal for the Expanded Child Tax Credit. With a "twinkle in his eye," he effectively terminated the program because he was worried that mothers were spending too much time with kids and not at work, and had the utter gall to say they would spend it on drugs.
As a result, we have seen childhood poverty skyrocket despite record-low unemployment, and they have no intention of bringing back even a weakened version of the expanded Child Tax Credit.
Conservative Approaches
JD Vance's recent proposal
Despite his love of blaming "childless cat ladies," JD Vance never endorsed any concrete plan until his recent interview.
The first time Vance had supported a refundable CTC was on an interview last Sunday (where he was for the Wyden Smith Tax Bill or the Romeny Proposals?).
The GOP Senators made it crystal clear that they would never pass anything that would actually help families, and any said tax credit would be drowned in means testing and work requirements to make it ineffective. With Mitch McConnell gleefully mocked it as “cash welfare instead of relief for working taxpayers.”, Despite, you know other conservative countries trying to implement or scale up existing programs.
Mitt Romney's evolving proposals
Before you asked, wasn't the GOP talking about child allowances a while back, before the Midterms? Before the Democrats implemented the Expanded Child Tax Credit, Mitt Romney released a counter-proposal to create a permanent child allowance benefit administered by the Social Security Administration.
According to People's Policy Project’s (and NBEREdge’s) Matt Bruenig, the First Romney proposal was better than the Democratic proposal. Matt observed it was clearly a mistake, both at the time and in hindsight, not to take him up on the offer.
The GOP and associated movements, such as the pro-life movement, rejected it. Later, Romney released a second version of his proposal. Unlike the first version, the new version no longer extends benefits to the poorest children.
Specifically, children in families earning less than $10,000 per year will be ineligible for the full advantage of the program, with the poorest children receiving nothing at all. The GOP still rejected it.
Romney implemented this change as an olive branch to pro-life Republicans and Senator Steve Daines, the head of the pro-life caucus.
In the press release for the new proposal, Romney included three quotes of support, all from pro-life conservative organizations.
What exactly is the pro-life thinking for work requirements? Even then, had the pro-life movement accepted the second Romeny proposal, the "family-friendly" GOP also rejected the second proposal, with JD Vance nowhere to be heard, despite his complaints about childless adults.
International Comparisons
This isn't just limited to the American right. Phoebe Arslanagic-Wakefield and Anvar Sarygulo of the Boom Campaign released an essay for Works in Progress, detailing that countries with "family values" often have lower fertility rates.
After the Great Recession, the "family-friendly" Conservative-led government systematically dismantled many benefits for younger generations. This included implementing the Two Child Cap on benefits, dramatically increasing the cost of higher education, and maintaining zoning laws that limit housing construction.
Exceptions within the Right
If the GOP (and other right-wing parties) had a tenth of the pepper as the Hungarian and Czechic Right does on this issue, we wouldn't be talking about bringing back the expanded Child Tax Credit. That being said, there are a lot of strong supporters of family policies among the American right.
Conservative-leaning researchers and policy wonks such as Lyman Stone (lots of great threads of CTC and Child Allowances) and Patrick T. Brown (who also writes a great Substack called Family Matters)
Groups associated with the conservative movement, such as the Institute for Family Studies and Oren Cass’s American Compass (who advocated for an expanded Child Tax Credit, but with a more administrative-friendly income requirement rather than a work requirement).
However, it is increasingly clear they are in the minority, not the majority, of conservative thought about the child tax credit, especially as more powerful think tanks such as the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the Heritage Foundation, and, of course, the Cato Institute have shown hostility towards the idea.
Democratic Approaches
The original expanded Child Tax Credit
The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARPA) temporarily expanded the child tax credit for 2021 to $3,600 per child younger than age 6 and $3,000 per child up to age 17. The size of the expanded benefit gradually diminished for single filers earning more than $75,000 per year and married couples earning more than $150,000 a year. ARPA temporarily made the tax credit fully refundable and paid half the total credit in monthly payments for the first six months rather than once yearly. The federal child tax credit reverted to previous payment levels for the 2022 tax year. The result of the eCTC was a massive one-year drop in child poverty.
Tim Walz's state-level implementation
Gov. Tim Walz, Harris's VP Candidate, has taken concrete material action by implementing a state-level version of the expanded Child Tax Credit. Minnesota's refundable child tax credit was $1,750 per child for 2023, the biggest in the country for low earners. The credit begins phasing out at $29,500 for single filers or $35,000 for married couples filing together. The complete phaseout depends on the number of children, family income, and filing status. It is exceptionally narrow, but considering this is passed on at the state level, it is remarkable, especially considering that Walz has a narrow majority in Minnesota's legislature.
This is in addition to Walz's other universalist programs for children, such as free universal breakfast and lunch for all eligible schoolchildren, reducing NIMBY barriers to multifamily construction, permitting reform, etc.
The "centrists" and child benefits
The deciding votes that ended the expanded Child Tax Credit were two "centrists," Krystan Sinema and Joe Manchin. Joe Manchin ended the last chance of renewal of Biden's Expanded Child Tax Credit, and does not regret the sheer horror of poverty he inflected on american children.
Like always, this isn't just an American issue. Emmanuel Macron championed austerity measures that undercut family support despite being, you know, socialists. Now president and rebranded as a centrist, Macron has lamented falling birth rates—which coincided with the new means testing and cuts to family policy in 2013—and proposed (less costly than increasing benefits) paid leave expansions instead of reversing earlier cuts. The new British Labour Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has shown hostility towards lifting the Tory Two Child Benefit Cap, backtracking promises and attacking MPs who want to lift the cap. Let alone cutting family benefits after the Great Recession can be seen throughout famously generous Western Europe, including Germany and Denmark.
Bottomline
JD Vance and Donald Trump could prove the critics wrong, but all signs that they wouldn't
At any point in time, JD Vance and especially Donald Trump have a reputation for consensus, as in they attack any GOP member the moment they fall out of line with their consensus.
Vance and Trump can attack anyone for getting in the way of passing an expanded Child Tax Credit now or in the past, but they haven't and most likely wouldn't
Vance's friend, Blake Masters, also ran campaigns advocating for families and against childless adults. Still, regarding policy recommendations, *checks notes* privatize social security with very little material support for families.
Unless something dramatically changes in the next couple of months, using the POSIWID principle it shows that Vance doesn't care much for family policy. After all, is there no point in claiming that a something does anything else besides what it is doing?
Harris/Walz is the only chance to back the expanded Child Tax Credit
The possibility of restoring the expanded CTC depends on various political factors, including the composition of Congress and the administration in power.
Even with a Democratic majority, that is no guarantee. While Krystan Sinemia and Joe Manchin may not be in the Senate after 2025, new "maverick centrists" may share their preference for child poverty.
With our current options, the only genuine chance in favor of family policy is Tim Walz who has a past history of working with tight majorities to implement his state level programs.
While child tax credit supporters on the right would argue that things are changing and that there is a massive rhetoric shift, my respose is would be the saying from Cervantes' “Don Quixote”. "You will see when the eggs are fried." Believe me, the eggs certainly looked fried.