One-Third of America: The Spread of 'Rental Desert' Neighborhoods
New study maps how municipal policies create neighborhoods where less than 20% of housing is rentable
Researchers Whitney Airgood-Obrycki, Magda Maaoui, and Sophia Wedeen in their paper "Rental deserts, segregation, and zoning," published in the Journal of Urban Affairs, examines how restrictive zoning creates "rental deserts" where rental housing makes up less than 20% of available units.
Why it matters:Â These local land use regulations effectively block rental housing in many neighborhoods, limiting options for everyone and hitting harder the nearly 70% of lower-income households that rent, many of whom are people of color. The limited options also mean higher rents.Â
By the numbers:
35.1% of U.S. census tracts are rental deserts (less than 20% rental housing)
These areas cover about two-thirds of America's land area
Suburban tracts account for 68% of all rental desert neighborhoods
Only 9% of rental deserts are in urban areas
Single-family homes make up 85% of housing in rental deserts
Just 3% of housing in rental deserts is multifamily with 5+ units, compared to 69% in high-rental areas
Median household income in rental deserts: $99,670 vs. $53,170 in high-rental areas
75% of rental desert residents are white, compared to 33% in high-rental neighborhoods
The big picture: The Journal of Urban Affairs study finds a direct statistical relationship between specific municipal zoning restrictions and lower rental housing availability, particularly in suburbs where restrictive land use regulations and NIMBY politics are common.
How municipal restrictions limit rental housing
Using the Eviction Lab's National Zoning and Land Use Database, researchers examined municipal zoning measures that predict rental availability:
Restrictions that reduce rental housing:
Growth control restrictions: associated with a 3-percentage-point lower rental share (5 points lower in cities, 2 points in suburbs)
Large minimum lot size requirements: 8 percentage points lower overall (7 points in cities, 6 points in suburbs)
Low-density requirements: 6 percentage points lower (3 points in cities, 2 points in suburbs)
Minimum parking requirements: 6 percentage points lower (4 points in both cities and suburbs)
Regulations that increase rental housing:
Inclusionary zoning programs: 8 percentage points higher rental share (5 points in cities, 2 points in suburbs)
Allowing accessory dwelling units (ADUs): 4 percentage points higher (more effective in suburbs than cities)
Greater maximum building heights: more rental housing, especially in cities
More zones allowing multifamily housing by right: higher rental shares in both cities and suburbs
Geographic patterns of rental housing
The researchers developed a "divergence index" to measure how unevenly rental housing is distributed within metro areas:
Metros with the most unevenly distributed rental housing: Dallas, Austin, Houston (Land Deed Restrictions!), and New York
Northeast metros with high segregation: Bridgeport, New Haven, Hartford, and Boston
Metros with more evenly distributed rental housing: North Port, Lakeland, and Palm Bay (Florida)
Regional variations:
New York metro: Two-thirds of divergent tracts have high ownership, concentrated in suburbs
Austin: Shows urban core rentals with a corridor of high-rental tracts extending south
Atlanta: More dispersed pattern of rental housing across the metro area
Land use and segregation
The restrictive zoning measures that limit rental availability are associated with racial and economic segregation:
Metros with unevenly distributed rental housing show higher racial segregation (correlation: 0.37)
Similar correlation with income segregation (0.31)
22 metro areas score high on segregation by housing tenure, race, and income
Dallas, Houston, and New York are in the top quartile for all three segregation measures
7 metros show low segregation across all measures, including several in Florida
Exclusionary effects of zoning
The research establishes how restrictive land use regulations contribute to rental scarcity:
Zoning actively functions as a barrier against neighborhoods adapting to demographic changes
Cities with the least housing construction have the most restrictive land use rules
Multifamily buildings provide nearly 70% of the nation's rental stock
High costs in restricted areas make it difficult for renters with lower median incomes to find housing
Historical patterns of discrimination have left Black households with limited access to homeownership
Solutions through policy reform
Some jurisdictions are beginning to address these patterns:
Several states are relaxing single-family-only zoning to enable more housing types
Reducing setback, density, floor area ratio, and parking requirements can promote rental construction
Expanding housing subsidies in a range of neighborhoods is necessary along side zoning changes
The bottom line: Restrictive municipal zoning is directly linked to rental housing scarcity in many neighborhoods. Changing these regulations is key to expanding rental options and reducing housing costs.