Iceland's COVID Baby Surge: Why Third Births Jumped 38% Among Educated Women
Fertility jumped 6% during COVID-19, driven by educated women with higher incomes
During the height of COVID-19 in 2021, Iceland experienced a surprising rise in fertility rates, with the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) increasing from 1.79 to 1.90 (Statistics Iceland). The trend was short-lived, and researchers Ásdís Arnalds, Ari Klængur Jónsson, and Sunna Símonardóttir investigated whether a parental leave reform or pandemic conditions drove the change in their 2025 paper "The 2021 Baby Boom in Iceland: Exploring the Role of a Parental Leave Reform and the COVID-19 Pandemic," using a mix of statistical analysis and focus group interviews with parents.
By the numbers
Iceland's fertility increase was primarily driven by third births (parents having a third child)
Fertility jumped most among educated women with higher household incomes
The increase was temporary, with rates dropping again in 2022 to 1.67
Monthly TFRs in 2021 were highest during the spring and summer months
Third-birth intensities increased by 24% in 2021 compared to 2020
Women with tertiary education saw a 38% increase in third-birth risk between 2020-2021
Households in the middle-high and high-income groups saw approximately 27% higher third-birth risk
Between the lines
While a major parental leave reform extending leave from 10 to 12 months took effect in January 2021, researchers found little evidence this policy caused the baby boom:
Only 2 of 27 parents interviewed said the policy influenced their decision
Most participants described the policy's financial support as inadequate
The cap on parental leave benefits (600,000 ISK/3,970 EUR) has remained unchanged since 2019
Parents reported significant financial strain when stretching leave to bridge the gap until preschool
Iceland lacks guaranteed preschool placement after parental leave ends
The fertility increase was short-lived and similar spikes occurred in other Nordic countries without such reforms
What they're saying
"I did not think it [COVID] was an obstacle, I thought it was rather nice to be pregnant and not be able to do anything when you cannot do anything anyway," one mother told researchers.
"People were more able to control their time," explained another parent, with several noting the pandemic atmosphere reminded them of being on parental leave.
"It fit well, and I thought it rather encouraged the idea to use this time that was not used for anything else, in order to be pregnant," shared a participant describing postponed travel plans.
Why it matters
The pandemic created unique economic and social conditions that appear to have temporarily changed childbearing decisions for certain groups:
The "slower pace of life" and reduced social obligations created space for having children
Cancelled travel plans and social events allowed some to reprioritize family expansion
Working from home and pandemic restrictions created an environment resembling parental leave
For parents with existing children, the pandemic offered relief from the usual "intensive parenting" demands
Government economic support during the pandemic likely reduced uncertainty for financially secure families
The timing suggests conceptions occurred during the fall of 2020 when people realized the pandemic would be prolonged
The bottom line
Iceland's 2021 fertility increase appears to reflect how pandemic conditions and “temporary” support programs influenced family planning decisions for financially secure, educated parents rather than being a response to intentional (and insufficient) policy changes. This mirrors findings from other Nordic countries, which show the highest fertility increases among educated women with stable jobs and existing children.