Higher Incomes Now Key Driver of Having Kids in the Netherlands
More evidence of a striking reversal is reshaping who has children in wealthy nations: Higher incomes are increasingly associated with higher fertility rates.
New research (Higher incomes are increasingly associated with higher fertility: Evidence from the Netherlands, 2008–2022) published in Demographic Research by Daniël van Wijk of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute.
Why it matters
This shift provides additional evidence that underlying economic factors is now driving reproductive decline, with lower-income adults increasingly unable to afford to have children. The trend could help explain falling birth rates across developed countries.
The big picture
The research, analyzing comprehensive data from the Netherlands between 2008-2022, reveals that income has become an increasingly crucial factor in the decision to start a family.
The trend matches similar patterns seen across OECD countries since the late 1980s
The Netherlands saw total fertility rates drop from 1.80 in 2010 to 1.49 in 2022
Similar trends have been observed at regional levels across Europe between 1990-2012
The study used full-population data, tracking every adult of childbearing age in the country
State of play
The relationship between income and fertility has evolved significantly:
Historically, higher income was linked to lower fertility rates
Recent studies show this relationship has flipped in many wealthy nations
The shift challenges traditional economic theories about income and fertility
Previous research focused mainly on employment status rather than income levels
Data and insights
First-time parents:
High-income men were 3.11x more likely to become fathers in 2022, up from 2.38x in 2008
High-income women were 2.44x more likely to become mothers in 2022, up from 1.63x in 2008
The effect strengthened consistently over the study period
Income effects are strongest for the transition to parenthood
Overall fertility patterns:
Men in the top income quintile were 1.89x more likely to have a child than those in the lowest quintile in 2022, up from 1.64x in 2008
For women, the gap widened from 1.41x to 1.61x more likely
Second and third children show much weaker income effects
The trend is driven by declining fertility among lower-income groups
Gender differences:
Income effects remain stronger for men than women
Women in the lowest income quintile have higher fertility than those in the second quintile
The Netherlands' "one and a half earner model" contributes to stronger male income effects
The pattern suggests traditional gender roles still influence fertility decisions
Study details
Methodology:
Analyzed all adults aged 18-50 (men) and 18-45 (women)
Measured income two years before births
Controlled for age, education, employment status, and migration background
Excluded individuals with missing income data (0.87% of observations)
Total sample: 52,327,941 observations for men; 42,823,262 for women
Additional analyses:
Results held true using both relative and absolute income measures
Findings consistent at both individual and couple levels
Separate models run for each year to control for changing age patterns
Special attention paid to parity-specific effects
Between the lines
Several factors may be driving this shift:
Rising costs of raising children, especially housing and childcare
Increasing expectations around investment in children
Income increasingly linked to stable relationships
Stagnating young adult incomes over the past decade
Spread of assisted reproductive technology among higher-income groups
International context
The Netherlands' pattern matches trends seen in:
Norway (1995-2010)
Australia
Germany
United Kingdom
United States
Russia (women only)
Switzerland (women only)
But differs from patterns in:
Republic of Korea
Russia (men)
Switzerland (men)
The bottom line
Having children - especially a first child - is increasingly becoming a privilege of the economically secure, with potentially major implications for demographic trends and social inequality. The trend suggests a fundamental shift in how economic resources shape family formation in wealthy nations.