Germany: Each 1% Rise in "Female-Dominated" Jobs = Birth Rates Up .01
Female-dominated industries drive birth rates up, male job losses drive them down
A study (Job creation, job destruction, and fertility in Germany) by Chen Luo and Ewa Jarosz from the University of Warsaw, just published in Demographic Research, finds that job creation and destruction affect fertility rates differently for men and women in Germany.
Women's jobs matter: Creating jobs for women, especially in female-dominated industries like healthcare and education, boosts birth rates.
Men's job losses hurt: When men lose jobs, particularly in manufacturing, couples have fewer babies.
Gender patterns: In the German context, female job creation has a stronger positive effect than male job creation, while male job destruction has a stronger negative effect than female job destruction.
Why it matters
Germany's fertility rate has been climbing since 2009, reaching above 1.5 children per woman after 2015 — and remaining there until 2021.
This research helps explain part of the puzzle: The country experienced higher job creation than destruction across most regions, with job creation rates often doubling job destruction rates throughout the study period.
By the numbers
A 1 percentage point increase in job creation predicts a 0.0036 increase in regional fertility rates
Job destruction has a stronger negative effect — a 1 percentage point increase correlates with a 0.0050 decrease in fertility
Job creation in female-dominated industries shows the strongest positive effect — a 0.01 increase in fertility rates (equivalent to half the median annual change in regional fertility)
The economic crisis in 2009 hit male-dominated industries harder, with higher job destruction rates for men
Female job creation exceeded male job creation in most countries during the economic crisis
Between the lines
The industries where women work make all the difference:
Female-dominated sectors (healthcare, education, public administration) offer more family-friendly conditions like stable employment and parental leave options
Creating jobs in these sectors gives family-oriented women opportunities that align with childbearing plans
These jobs typically offer greater security but lower pay
A 2007 parental leave reform in Germany made women's labor market attachment more important for family planning, as maternity payments became earnings-based
Male breadwinner roles remain important — men's employment still provides the financial security many couples need before having children
State of play
Labor market dynamics varied across German regions:
East-West divisions emerged after the economic crisis
East German women experienced lower job creation and higher job destruction rates than West German women by 2019
Regional fertility rates show consistent geographic clustering patterns
Some regions (like Saxony and Hesse) maintained stable patterns of high or low fertility
Other regions (like Upper Palatinate, Bavaria) saw substantial changes over time
Zoom in: Study methodology
Researchers analyzed data from 400 German regions between 2008-2020, using:
Data on employees subject to social security contributions across 89 economic sectors
Spatial panel data modeling to account for regional spillover effects
Industry-level analyses comparing male and female-dominated sectors
Robust controls for GDP per capita, population density, labor force participation, and demographic factors
Worth noting
The study found a "neighborhood effect" — fertility rates in one region influenced nearby regions
Jobs created in female-dominated industries in neighboring regions had less impact, possibly due to commuting challenges with family responsibilities
The researchers couldn't determine whether women select family-friendly jobs because of fertility plans or if these jobs cause higher fertility
The study excluded self-employed workers, civil servants, and mini-job holders
What's next
Further research is needed to understand:
How job characteristics within specific industries affect fertility decisions
Whether skill levels and education interact with job creation effects
How availability of childcare services influence the relationship between employment and fertility
The bottom line
Labor market dynamics shape fertility decisions in distinctly gendered ways. Creating jobs isn't enough — the types of jobs matter too. The study provides a novel explanation for Germany's fertility increase since 2009, suggesting that sustained job creation, particularly in female-dominated industries, may have contributed significantly to higher birth rates.
Questions For the Audience!
How do job opportunities in your region shape family planning decisions? Consider whether the availability of certain jobs (like those in healthcare, education, or manufacturing) affects when and if people choose to have children in your community.
Have you observed gender differences in how employment affects fertility decisions? The research shows women's job creation and men's job losses impact birth rates differently. Does this reflect patterns you've seen in your own experience?
What policy approaches might best support both employment and family formation? As governments consider economic development strategies, how could they create the right kinds of jobs that enable people to pursue both career and family goals?