China: Internet Increases Users' Demand For Kids
Internet access turns out a unexpected ally in fertility crisis; Web access increases fertility intentions by 3.4 percentage points
China's plummeting fertility rates may have a surprising ally: the Internet. A new paper, Internet Use and Fertility Intention in China from Sho Komatsu at the Asian Growth Research Institute, analyzing 2014-2018 data shows that Internet access increases people's desire to have children, contradicting previous beliefs. The paper analyzes data from 2014-2018 from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). This finding challenges previous studies that suggested the opposite effect. The research used fixed effects and instrumental variable methods to address individual differences and other statistical challenges that needed to be accounted for in earlier studies.
By the numbers:
Internet users were 0.033-0.034 percentage points more likely to want children
The positive effect was strongest among the following:
People under the age of 49
Those who are married
Rural residents
Those with a high school education or less
The total fertility rate dropped from 6.385 in 1965 to 2.309 in 1990, then to 1.665 in 2015
The CFPS study included 37,147 respondents in 2014 and 37,354 in 2018
Why it matters
China's fertility rate has plummeted since the one-child policy began in 1979, hitting just 1.3 births per woman in 2020. Despite relaxing birth control policies, including the "universal two-child" policy in 2015, birth rates haven't increased as expected. Birth rates in 2018 and 2019 decreased by 1.17% and 1.63% compared to 2011-2015. Understanding what influences people's desire to have children is crucial as China tries to boost its population.
The catch: The research revealed complex patterns in how Internet use affects fertility intentions across different populations. While the overall effect was positive, urban residents showed weaker positive effects than their rural counterparts. The study found that Internet users with urban hukou (household registration) responded differently to Internet exposure. However, even urban residents showed some positive effects after accounting for statistical biases. Additionally, while people's attitudes toward the Internet as an information source significantly impacted their fertility intentions, the mere frequency of Internet use didn't show meaningful effects. This suggests that how people engage with the Internet matters more than how often they use it.
Between the lines: The research identified several mechanisms through which Internet access may influence fertility intentions. Internet use appears to boost household income, which interestingly has a slight negative effect on fertility intentions - though other positive factors outweigh this effect. The Internet facilitates remote work and flexible employment, making balancing work and family life easier. It also serves as what researchers call "the new social intermediary in the search for mates," potentially making it easier to find partners, at least in the Chinese context. The study suggests that Internet access provides better information about childcare and parenting. However, depending on its perception, this information can positively and negatively affect fertility intentions.
Bottomline
The findings indicate that expanding Internet access, especially to rural and less educated populations, could help encourage more Chinese families to have children. However, the government may need targeted policies for urban residents with weaker positive effects. The research suggests that policymakers should promote positive information about childcare on Internet platforms while developing strategies to support telework and establish more childcare facilities.