Beyond Skepticism: Data Confirms Auckland's Zoning Reforms Delivered on Housing Promises
Three rigorous studies, 43,500 new homes, and a 28% drop in rents: The data is in on Auckland's great housing experiment
"Dispelling myths: Reviewing the evidence on zoning reforms in Auckland" by Stuart Donovan and Matthew Maltman (Land Use Policy, 2025) definitively shows that despite vocal critics, Auckland's 2016 zoning reforms boosted housing supply and lowered rents.
Why it matters
Housing affordability is a major challenge globally
Auckland's reforms represent one of the largest-scale zoning changes attempted
The results provide clear evidence that zoning reform can meaningfully impact housing markets
65% of economists in Australia and 95% in New Zealand believe easing planning restrictions improves affordability
The big picture
Three rigorous studies found Auckland's reforms enabling more housing on 75% of urban land led to:
Greenaway-McGrevy and Phillips (2023):
Additional 21,808 consents after five years
Around 4% of Auckland's housing stock
Used comparison of upzoned vs non-upzoned areas
Greenaway-McGrevy (2023a):
Additional 43,500 consents within six years
About 9% of housing stock
Compared Auckland to similar NZ cities
Greenaway-McGrevy and So (2024):
Rents 28% lower than comparable cities after six years
Used synthetic control methods
Focused on rent impacts rather than supply
Key critiques debunked
Sample selection bias:
Critics claimed excluding certain areas skewed results
Reality: Including all areas showed even larger positive effects (+34,000 consents)
Authors transparently disclosed data choices and tested the robustness
Non-upzoned areas provided valid control group
Building permits vs. completions:
Data shows consent track completions with a 24-month lag
Council valuation data: 84% completion rate (61,209 new units 2018-2023)
2023 Census confirms: 64,836 new dwellings 2018-2023
Completion rates remained strong through the COVID period
Statistical methodology:
The study used a sophisticated probabilistic approach
Accounted for uncertainty in pre-treatment trends
Could accommodate up to 13.68% annual growth
Critics misunderstood the use of linear trends as the baseline
Counterfactual scenarios:
Historical average: 5.9 consents per 1,000 residents
Actual outcomes in the rest of New Zealand tracked predictions
Critics' proposed 12.6% annual growth rate exceeded even post-earthquake Canterbury
By the numbers
Pre-reform (1996-2015):
Average 5.9 consents per 1,000 residents annually
The previous peak was ~9 per 1,000 residents
Post-reform:
Peaked at ~12 consents per 1,000 residents
33% higher than the previous maximum
Maintained high levels while other regions remained stable
The bottom line
The evidence clearly shows Auckland's zoning reforms succeeded in increasing housing supply and improving affordability. All reasonable analytical methods show significant positive effects, and critics' arguments fail under rigorous academic scrutiny.
The reforms:
Enabled more housing on 75% of urban land
Led to record levels of housing construction
Reduced rents compared to similar cities
Demonstrated that zoning reform can meaningfully impact housing markets